NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8eab8461d9b90629282a95664a1c2018454eb55415a13df0e8e6a6ea48bde217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Bucks, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Hornets | 0c | 8,622$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks | 46c | 5,611$2,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,029.94 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Hornets | 54c | 4,135$2,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,232.9 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 55c | 2,534$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.26 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Bucks | 46c | 1,800$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 45c | 1,789$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.9 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Hornets | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Hornets | 54c | 972$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.88 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 54c | 519.27$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.39 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hornets | 54c | 509$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.86 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Bucks | 46c | 440$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Bucks | 44c | 438.57$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.6 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Hornets | 52c | 425$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Hornets | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Bucks | 47c | 336.17$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.17 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Bucks | 48c | 258.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.51 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hornets | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Bucks | 47c | 214.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.97 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hornets | 54c | 144.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…6fcabacked Bucks | 46c | 144.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Bucks | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Hornets | 59c | 116.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…0893backed Bucks | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Bucks | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Bucks | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 110 | 28.2%31 W · 79 L | -9.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 38c | 66.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Hornets | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Bucks | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Bucks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…1466backed Bucks | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Bucks | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)this page
- Hornets vs. BucksBucks won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.