Fifa International · resolved market
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7baa9dce7315e253a069aad29b0bc7cb6b9bdbdf0ccaa987c1241c5ecd065586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 8,528$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.73 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 20c | 3,932$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.95 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 28c | 1,813$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 28c | 1,774$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.14 | 205 | 60%123 W · 82 L | +17.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 10c | 1,601$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.59 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 1,211$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.31 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8073…c119backed Over | 6c | 1,189$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under | 79c | 900$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 21c | 664.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 188 | 22.3%42 W · 146 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 71c | 591$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.39 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 76c | 569.48$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 279 | 51.6%144 W · 135 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Under | 78c | 459.64$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.31 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 74c | 352.22$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.03 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 74c | 342$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.97 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 80c | 318$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Under | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 156 | 55.1%86 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 21c | 299.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Over | 23c | 219.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 238 | 20.6%49 W · 189 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd273…9a33backed Over | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 20c | 175.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over | 21c | 167.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 184 | 35.3%65 W · 119 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 77c | 157$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 22c | 140.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 20c | 105.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 183 | 71%130 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 29c | 65.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 908 | 40.9%371 W · 537 L | -64.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…748cbacked Under | 77c | 64.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…9103backed Over | 32c | 52.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f06…3e6ebacked Over | 22c | 50.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…5765backed Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Under | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb821…5cddbacked Under | 79c | 40.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 76c | 25.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37b…63a1backed Under | 78c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…24aebacked Under | 70c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5this page
- Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5Over won
- Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5Over won
- Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Armenia (-1.5)Kazakhstan won
- Spread: Armenia (-2.5)Kazakhstan won
- Spread: Kazakhstan (-1.5)Armenia won
- Spread: Kazakhstan (-2.5)Armenia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.