Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd44304c8f38d43b55e09862aac4d8593349ff832dcf79ba892850ddc1d65ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 986.14$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.66 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 35c | 685.1$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.36 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 618.61$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 3c | 329.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 314.59$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 311$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 28c | 299.07$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 38c | 276.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.77 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 16c | 241.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 227.78$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…298bbacked No | 71c | 210.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 14c | 159.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 155$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 36c | 149.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 80c | 118.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 104.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 87.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 81.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 75.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 68.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…91dabacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 55.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 21c | 54.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 47.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 25c | 43.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 38c | 36.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 33.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…171dbacked Yes | 33c | 32.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 31.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 43c | 30.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 42c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 65c | 24.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe13b…6747backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.