Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51c8ed8a457f596c1975657a619ecf6c1451c38c77d63fbc9b48c101b7011eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 342.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 39c | 267.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 234.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 230.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 9c | 218.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 79c | 212.32$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 19c | 201.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.7 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.16 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 174$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 134.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 122.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 17c | 117.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.91 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 34c | 114.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 108.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 49c | 89.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 82.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 44c | 71.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 47c | 51.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 45c | 50.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 63c | 37.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 42c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 41c | 32.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 76c | 31.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 29.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 27.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 45c | 23.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 18.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 65c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.