Premier League · resolved market
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c2a8139e1369a363ef3f19e5b84b8261a23f9883baab06a4411870eec3a678f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 17,259$3,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,283.77 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 17c | 9,142$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.11 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 17c | 4,597$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.1 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118e…53ecbacked Over | 80c | 2,497$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…d4bfbacked Over | 70c | 1,800$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 19c | 1,043$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 18c | 1,023$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.35 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 700.49$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.32 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 19c | 568.06$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.34 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 19c | 437.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 27c | 429.55$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.21 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 18c | 387.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 21c | 198.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Over | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 73c | 170.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 240 | 62.5%150 W · 90 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 50c | 139$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 50c | 96.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 18c | 80.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b79…4acbbacked Under | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 42cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1525…2815backed Under | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…6c37backed Over | 70c | 30.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 50c | 24.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 282 | 42.2%119 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Over | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)West Ham United FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)West Ham United FC won
- Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.