Premier League · resolved market
West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88c696a50298d4b7d754bfb2bcf9bb0a60ccc309fd8a06fd662bbcd9d67f0bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,468 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 2,393$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.71 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 21c | 1,429$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 19c | 1,418$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.43 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 20c | 1,249$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.59 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 21c | 476.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Over | 21c | 428.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 16c | 356.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 22c | 227.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 32.9%75 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 28.8%55 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Over | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…c2aebacked Over | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Under | 71c | 132.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…76c0backed Over | 18c | 116.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 13c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 85 | 16.5%14 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 86.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Over | 21c | 72.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 21c | 65.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 189 | 63%119 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23e2…9ecdbacked Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 21c | 47.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 79c | 41.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 79c | 38.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1deb…472fbacked Under | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 31.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1d…6d86backed Under | 80c | 26.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 78c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…ead7backed Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked Under | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Under | 79c | 19.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 119 | 54.6%65 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb301…0ae9backed Under | 76c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 79c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 78c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)West Ham United FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)West Ham United FC won
- Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- West Ham United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.