Euroleague · resolved market
Valencia vs. KK Crvena Zvezda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c5d25738f40a30238e2773d2640f4a7090f1f508ff33bfcaac617907fe39c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valenciaof Valencia, KK Crvena Zvezda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ae5…8342backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 54c | 84,405$45,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,891.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Valencia | 44c | 32,993$14,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,422.73 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valencia | 47c | 25,384$11,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,400.02 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Valencia | 49c | 5,714$2,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,908.57 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Valencia | 65c | 4,647$3,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.14 | 369 | 39.8%147 W · 222 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Valencia | 49c | 3,201$1,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.65 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Valencia | 64c | 3,157$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.72 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Valencia | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Valencia | 44c | 1,700$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Valencia | 68c | 1,305$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Valencia | 44c | 1,264$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.74 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 35c | 1,082$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.63 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Valencia | 44c | 1,075$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.45 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 36c | 1,003$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Valencia | 46c | 998.79$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.27 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Valencia | 66c | 867.55$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.3 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Valencia | 47c | 819.55$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.44 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Valencia | 46c | 807.48$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.69 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -8.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Valencia | 46c | 727.16$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.93 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Valencia | 45c | 608$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.53 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Valencia | 45c | 512.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.84 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Valencia | 50c | 480$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bb17backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 34c | 476.47$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…2de5backed Valencia | 64c | 450$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe39…92abbacked Valencia | 64c | 380$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Valencia | 50c | 317.65$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.65 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x225c…ba3cbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…ca63backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 31c | 220$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 35c | 203.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 222 | 31.5%70 W · 152 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Valencia | 42c | 185.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Valencia | 67c | 175.68$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 34c | 170.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Valencia | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 35c | 145.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Valencia | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 35c | 121$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 34c | 78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked KK Crvena Zvezda | 23c | 77.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df8…5332backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 37c | 70.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…ad22backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Valencia | 41c | 55.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…c496backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Valencia | 54c | 51.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Valencia | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Valencia | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +69%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed Valencia | 67c | 44.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…2b8abacked Valencia | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Valencia | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed KK Crvena Zvezda | 35c | 34.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Valencia | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5931…08cbbacked Valencia | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Valencia | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…d6cbbacked Valencia | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Valencia | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.