Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c643feace470b3947b873a697c92c8dc07c9fa2774f7eae8e1dc389987bc227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,879 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 62c | 9,323$5,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,542.88 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 4,935$3,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.4 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 38c | 4,737$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Over | 38c | 4,089$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 62c | 3,212$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220.62 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Over | 38c | 3,179$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.02 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 35c | 2,284$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.27 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Over | 38c | 2,120$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 16c | 877.04$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.52 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 36c | 856.96$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.27 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 64c | 782.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.44 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 65c | 588.52$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.52 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…7f28backed Over | 32c | 549.38$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Over | 31c | 543.38$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.45 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 36c | 484.75$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.01 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 33c | 430$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 34c | 399.97$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.63 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 34c | 354.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…ce9fbacked Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 33c | 215$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 69c | 197.1$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 67c | 194.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 34c | 172$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…afe2backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 66c | 108.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Over | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Under | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…ae74backed Under | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 31c | 81.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 65c | 80.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Over | 36c | 73.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1adb…f12abacked Over | 37c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 38c | 72.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf450…9817backed Under | 67c | 61.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 62c | 60.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 35c | 46.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 65c | 44.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 142 | 47.9%68 W · 74 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 34c | 42.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde42…e01bbacked Over | 33c | 42.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 64c | 39.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce38…eecdbacked Over | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…0412backed Over | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed Under | 66c | 29.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 69c | 27.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…a1c0backed Under | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 64c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-2.5)Olympique de Marseille won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.