Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c6f8c65cab843c5875017ab8af98e6d04b06347648ab9229f6b6df0905d3d4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 38c | 402.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.81 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 351.72$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 310.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 5c | 223.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 185.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 31c | 169.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 30c | 164.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 73c | 146.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 141.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 75c | 119.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 45c | 92.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 37c | 86.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 66c | 83.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 76.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 63c | 72.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 71.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 71.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 51c | 60.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 50.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 38c | 50.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 46.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 41.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 63c | 37.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 35.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 63c | 34.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 41c | 33.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 30.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 68c | 28.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…b485backed Yes | 41c | 27.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 58c | 24.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 59c | 19.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 19.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.