Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5e0b9c6fe13ac0be8923b49a51b2f336fce208038733d1cbce3a363ef4db97a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 559.17$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.61 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 482.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 78c | 257.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 240.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 231.49$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 190.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 29c | 173.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 155.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 146.42$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 25c | 133.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 123.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked No | 71c | 108.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 101.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 92.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 72c | 71.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 73c | 65.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 63.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 30c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 27c | 60.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 59.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 28c | 58.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 50.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 55c | 50.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20fc…7ac9backed Yes | 54c | 48.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 47.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 26c | 44.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 75c | 43.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 72c | 41.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 41.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 41.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 80c | 38.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 27c | 36.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 76c | 32.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 67c | 29.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 75c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 72c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 24.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 69c | 18.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 72c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…6534backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 76c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…494cbacked No | 79c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.