CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs NIP - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c929afd7d2305843e836d9dab926169ce24b19a120775424289a210712ed66b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NIPof Fluxo, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Fluxo | 9c | 4,329$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.06 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Fluxo | 36c | 4,138$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.9 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Fluxo | 11c | 2,940$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.6 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Fluxo | 31c | 2,393$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.75 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Fluxo | 12c | 2,250$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.54 | 1,619 | 45.5%737 W · 882 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed NIP | 60c | 1,990$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.08 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Fluxo | 7c | 1,977$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Fluxo | 9c | 1,750$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.27 | 5,876 | 37.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L | +71.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c05…578fbacked NIP | 69c | 1,232$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.88 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed NIP | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…2625backed Fluxo | 12c | 537$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Fluxo | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed NIP | 69c | 369.07$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed NIP | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed NIP | 69c | 327.54$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed NIP | 79c | 311.68$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed NIP | 79c | 240$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 508 | 46.3%235 W · 273 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed Fluxo | 33c | 231$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Fluxo | 24c | 209.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 667 | 53.1%354 W · 313 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…04dabacked Fluxo | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…4893backed Fluxo | 16c | 190.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…c8fbbacked Fluxo | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…b832backed NIP | 69c | 131.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…0c5dbacked Fluxo | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Fluxo | 12c | 87.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Fluxo | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,263 | 46.9%592 W · 671 L | +18.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed NIP | 68c | 55.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…cc67backed NIP | 73c | 54.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed NIP | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 184 | 47.8%88 W · 96 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…c89ebacked Fluxo | 32c | 32.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked NIP | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed NIP | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed NIP | 68c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked NIP | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs NIP - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs NIP (BO3)NIP won
- Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs NIP - Map 2 WinnerNIP won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.