Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open (W): Sabalenka vs. Badosa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ce62cb18ae54b3411071ac2cd8e80ee3fb4cbd64daeb3ac67834ebbc22a97fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Badosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Badosa | 22c | 3,075$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.79 | 949 | 40.1%381 W · 568 L | +30.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Badosa | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Badosa | 29c | 1,390$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.57 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…ae97backed Sabalenka | 77c | 896.75$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed Badosa | 8c | 854.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +317.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Sabalenka | 77c | 844.38$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +29%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Badosa | 30c | 824$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.2 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Badosa | 10c | 719.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Badosa | 22c | 461.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…6bedbacked Sabalenka | 72c | 454.51$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.51 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Sabalenka | 78c | 388.79$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Sabalenka | 75c | 347.67$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Badosa | 20c | 274.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Badosa | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Badosa | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Sabalenka | 73c | 145.89$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed Badosa | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14bb…882bbacked Sabalenka | 80c | 138.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe514…2c62backed Badosa | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037e…e009backed Sabalenka | 78c | 89.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea6…672ebacked Sabalenka | 78c | 63.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…97bcbacked Sabalenka | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb94…d871backed Badosa | 41c | 27.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Sabalenka | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.