Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d4e65f24b5e57bb79b4f237700ccc75896a83167c435215e5afb6bafa4796bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 47c | 358.03$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 54c | 325.96$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.55 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 309.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 6c | 268.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 32c | 228.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.29 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 53c | 198.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 25c | 197.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 141.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 119.71$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 115.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 57c | 115.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 107.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 95.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 48c | 89.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes | 62c | 84.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 83.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 81.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 75.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 72.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 47c | 69.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…bdf2backed Yes | 38c | 67.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 62c | 64.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 58.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 52c | 58.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 35c | 57.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…a5adbacked Yes | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 55.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 54c | 55.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…ede0backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 49c | 48.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 45.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 52c | 43.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 40c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 41c | 41.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 60c | 40.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 38.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 37.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…c151backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 37.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 37.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 47c | 34.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 40c | 34.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 30.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 67c | 30.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2e96backed No | 63c | 28.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…60f9backed Yes | 41c | 28.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 51c | 28.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…5f37backed Yes | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…6c19backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 23.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.