Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ce847af306166d9f5a3a5ce0e74c03cdc45ad54d8cf9b050023ef60eda1310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 62c | 704.88$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.74 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 63c | 480.65$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.98 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea7…a1d7backed No | 78c | 257.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 238.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 194.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 175.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 77c | 175.17$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 161.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…0a1fbacked Yes | 27c | 147.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…9fe1backed No | 77c | 140.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 133.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 74c | 125.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 33c | 117.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 21c | 109.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.41 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 109$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 50c | 105.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 47c | 105.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 105.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 98.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 91.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 46c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 53c | 81.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 76.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 75.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 74.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 34c | 73.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…0bb0backed Yes | 46c | 73.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 72.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 69.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 68.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 67.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 67.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 40c | 67.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 71c | 63.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 21c | 62.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 33c | 60.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 52c | 57.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked No | 66c | 55.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 36c | 55.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…a5adbacked Yes | 30c | 54.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 53.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 20c | 52.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 46.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 80c | 43.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 41.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 56c | 40.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 50c | 39.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 47c | 37.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…02fcbacked No | 72c | 36.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 48c | 36.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 78c | 34.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd3…6c19backed Yes | 32c | 34.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 34c | 34.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…0b82backed Yes | 78c | 32.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3065…ad8dbacked No | 76c | 29.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 79c | 27.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 26.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 78c | 25.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 77c | 22.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 79c | 22.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 22.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 75c | 21.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 19.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 75c | 18.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…db04backed Yes | 65c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 76c | 16.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 78c | 12.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.