Fifa International · resolved market
Will Denmark beat Serbia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d5ffdc91541d85d9a157f2f02772c80804c0b56cc47d83aca1837172db37039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,306$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.84 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed No | 64c | 569$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…c870backed Yes | 36c | 413.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 33c | 395.76$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…7524backed No | 68c | 333.19$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 32c | 325$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…79ebbacked Yes | 36c | 316.69$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 65c | 227.51$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1815…5961backed Yes | 34c | 151.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…0d45backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 35c | 145.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…e2c9backed Yes | 38c | 115.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…2e45backed No | 69c | 108.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f2…d105backed Yes | 48c | 56.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…38b4backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 52c | 46.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +13.7wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +416.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 23c | 45.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 31c | 44.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a0…436dbacked Yes | 31c | 38.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…2662backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denmark beat Serbia?this page
- Will Serbia beat Denmark?No won
- Will the match between Serbia and Denmark end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.