MLB · resolved market

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dc6001baf9c4e24d5fe04ca4e9b55985cfcd7bcdd7831284e354ad8560ef3ed

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,012 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x055a…12ddbacked Over	52c	3,168$1,647 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,520.45	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over	51c	2,912$1,483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,428.99	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under	50c	2,910$1,455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,455	1,352	50.8%687 W · 665 L	+13.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Over	51c	2,868$1,476 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,391.66	577	44.7%258 W · 319 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Over	50c	2,706$1,353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,353.24	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+21%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Under	49c	2,360$1,156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,156.47	163	47.9%78 W · 85 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	48c	1,462$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.91	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	308	44.2%136 W · 172 L	-10.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Over	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	83	60.2%50 W · 33 L	+8.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	48c	999.97$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.99	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd64d…28a6backed Over	52c	975.11$506 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.4	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Over	50c	970$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$485	227	53.3%121 W · 106 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	48c	874.5$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.3	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3af1…2330backed Over	49c	772$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393.72	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under	49c	740.19$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.05	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Under	50c	582$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Under	49c	503.12$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.53	243	50.2%122 W · 121 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x586d…c5dcbacked Under	50c	474.8$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.4	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	51c	459.64$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225.23	1,029	51.2%527 W · 502 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Under	50c	430.68$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.34	82	46.3%38 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	51c	380.63$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.51	940	34.3%322 W · 618 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Under	48c	332.09$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.29	488	50.2%245 W · 243 L	+5.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under	47c	301.8$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.68	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Over	50c	293.08$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.54	98	37.8%37 W · 61 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over	51c	291.18$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.68	840	49.4%415 W · 425 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	72c	265.21$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.1	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under	27c	261.26$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.28	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…0d90backed Over	80c	200$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	54	29.6%16 W · 38 L	-5.9wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	49c	198.73$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.38	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under	20c	190.4$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.08	1,522	34.7%528 W · 994 L	+27.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Over	73c	181.95$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.96	554	64.1%355 W · 199 L	+63.1wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Under	50c	155.2$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.6	395	53.7%212 W · 183 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Over	52c	145.68$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.93	208	51.9%108 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	48c	142.98$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.63	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under	30c	124.4$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.11	1,912	53%1,014 W · 898 L	+42.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	11c	124.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over	71c	122.99$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.05	825	51.6%426 W · 399 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Over	51c	109.88$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.32	158	58.2%92 W · 66 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	71c	107.57$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.52	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over	49c	107.47$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.81	568	51.4%292 W · 276 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under	48c	104.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.24	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	619	48.6%301 W · 318 L	+5.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed Under	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-5.4wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Under	50c	97$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	68	57.4%39 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under	29c	90.2$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.82	996	24.6%245 W · 751 L	-70.1wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under	18c	89.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	290	47.6%138 W · 152 L	-11.4wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Under	50c	81.56$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.78	515	55%283 W · 232 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Under	50c	77.6$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.8	342	55.3%189 W · 153 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	51c	75.02$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.76	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under	49c	71.15$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.87	185	53.5%99 W · 86 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over	51c	70.42$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	361	57.9%209 W · 152 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over	71c	68.22$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.57	1,269	47.4%602 W · 667 L	-31.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7048…282dbacked Under	50c	58.2$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under	50c	57.23$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.62	283	50.2%142 W · 141 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8702…6304backed Over	51c	57.09$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.98	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.12per pick	54cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	52c	56.03$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.89	704	55%387 W · 317 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	47c	54.32$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66ec…5891backed Over	50c	49.75$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.88	90	43.3%39 W · 51 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Over	52c	49.45$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.74	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-5.8wins	-0.18per pick	53cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under	49c	47.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.28	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Under	50c	46.56$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.28	205	51.7%106 W · 99 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under	27c	40.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	667	49.3%329 W · 338 L	-22.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Over	70c	40.46$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.14	532	61.8%329 W · 203 L	+20.6wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under	29c	40.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	268	54.1%145 W · 123 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Under	50c	38.8$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	247	48.2%119 W · 128 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over	51c	38.06$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.65	1,197	53.9%645 W · 552 L	+42.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa20d…eadebacked Over	51c	38.06$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.65	204	46.6%95 W · 109 L	-10.2wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7770…f99bbacked Under	49c	37.53$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-5.8wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under	48c	30.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	252	49.6%125 W · 127 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Over	75c	29.94$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.55	1,445	50.3%727 W · 718 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over	63c	28.77$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.51	1,367	54.3%742 W · 625 L	+16.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Over	51c	28.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.99	174	50.6%88 W · 86 L	-9.0wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Over	51c	28.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.99	443	47.9%212 W · 231 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over	49c	28$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.28	283	52.3%148 W · 135 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under	48c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over	72c	24.79$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.94	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Under	50c	22.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	371	43.9%163 W · 208 L	-21.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x234b…348ebacked Over	51c	20.4$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Over	67c	19.01$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.18	202	58.4%118 W · 84 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8911…5ffabacked Over	80c	12.84$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.57	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5this page
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Over won
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5Over won
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Washington NationalsYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event