MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e046d693ef818e3266f8e6f5b65ebc112219f0fbf8d4ccb825bc4e8e53adef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 20,000$11,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,199.99 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a0…f8aabacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 13,930$6,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 3,865$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.75 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 2,790$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.87 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 2,280$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 1,880$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.6 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 1,379$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.2 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 1,327$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 1,200$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 1,126$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.56 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 1,068$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.4 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 707.95$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.45 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 513.76$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 316$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 284$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.04 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 222.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 217.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 135.46$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 131.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebeb…74d4backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 79.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…f0e4backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 72.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8540…ee5dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 55.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…5051backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 32.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…a5fbbacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 23.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Baltimore Orioles | 57c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.