Tennis · resolved market
Quito: Hernan Casanova vs Juan Sebastian Osorio
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e0bf3c43f2b5e6ae6062aa6afe3c58b4684513ed42de1dfdc905831db6bb344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hernan Casanovaof Hernan Casanova, Juan Sebastian Osorio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d99…9675backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 15c | 6,100$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.25 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…246dbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 13c | 3,600$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 17c | 3,431$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 10c | 1,055$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.46 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 17c | 800.14$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 3,319 | 48.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L | -52.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 23c | 749.95$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.43 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 19c | 626.07$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 692 | 44.4%307 W · 385 L | +29.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a17…e0c3backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 8c | 569.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 12c | 545.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 19c | 524.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.95 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hernan Casanova | 80c | 405.74$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 20c | 398.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.82 | 167 | 55.7%93 W · 74 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 13c | 293.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 23c | 268.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 19c | 230$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 22c | 172.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 568 | 48.9%278 W · 290 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b6…886ebacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 18c | 171.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 178 | 60.1%107 W · 71 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 169.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 980 | 55.4%543 W · 437 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 9c | 169.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 22c | 120.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 591 | 57.7%341 W · 250 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 26c | 117.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 24c | 103.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 11c | 100.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,542 | 49.2%759 W · 783 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 338 | 51.2%173 W · 165 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 26c | 97.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 22c | 96.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 991 | 48.6%482 W · 509 L | +43.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 20c | 86.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80de…4291backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 18c | 78.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Hernan Casanova | 78c | 77.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,068 | 57.4%613 W · 455 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b0…b4d1backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615d…bd5bbacked Hernan Casanova | 77c | 67.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 20c | 66.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Juan Sebastian Osorio | 19c | 65.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Hernan Casanova | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 956 | 55.9%534 W · 422 L | +19.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 223 | 18.8%42 W · 181 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…7c8bbacked Juan Sebastian Osorio | 24c | 54.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Hernan Casanova | 79c | 49.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Hernan Casanova | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 443 | 63.4%281 W · 162 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Hernan Casanova | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Hernan Casanova | 78c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 300 | 55%165 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Hernan Casanova | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Hernan Casanova | 79c | 27.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…9183backed Hernan Casanova | 78c | 24.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 205 | 66.8%137 W · 68 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Hernan Casanova | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Hernan Casanova | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Hernan Casanova | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Hernan Casanova | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…f379backed Hernan Casanova | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Hernan Casanova | 77c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Hernan Casanova | 79c | 16.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 372 | 53.8%200 W · 172 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.