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CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-RUBYof Nemiga, ex-RUBY
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,909
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,909 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Nemiga62c12,097$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,500.1978052.8%412 W · 368 L+28.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x060f…7eeebacked ex-RUBY38c11,639$4,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,215.94966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e3…1be9backed Nemiga63c8,551$5,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,387.4121853.2%116 W · 102 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed ex-RUBY37c7,000$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,409.9969351.9%360 W · 333 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd5…a179backed Nemiga55c5,674$3,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,146.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked ex-RUBY44c5,226$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.831,04252.5%547 W · 495 L+29.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed ex-RUBY32c3,425$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.911,68053.2%893 W · 787 L+65.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked Nemiga62c2,836$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.4838847.7%185 W · 203 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db4…d69bbacked Nemiga55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37575857%432 W · 326 L+49.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd677…7579backed Nemiga68c2,356$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,594.526547.7%31 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked ex-RUBY54c2,212$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.964356.9%366 W · 277 L+40.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed ex-RUBY37c2,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2601,09451.1%559 W · 535 L+40.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86f4…bd70backed ex-RUBY33c1,800$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2063652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Nemiga63c1,587$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8119253.6%103 W · 89 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed Nemiga63c1,528$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.8118145.3%82 W · 99 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed Nemiga53c1,400$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74244855.6%249 W · 199 L+16.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x270e…53cabacked Nemiga64c1,184$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.149655.2%53 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997f…b0f7backed ex-RUBY47c1,100$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUBY44c1,004$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.418,05850.3%4,055 W · 4,003 L+171.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed ex-RUBY37c862.83$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.61,16142.2%490 W · 671 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed ex-RUBY43c823.38$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.2969671.7%499 W · 197 L+120.3wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+23.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed ex-RUBY39c806.03$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.9630437.8%115 W · 189 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUBY33c759.98$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.195,91137.7%2,228 W · 3,683 L+74.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked ex-RUBY54c676.94$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.733,31945.5%1,509 W · 1,810 L-87.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked ex-RUBY37c657.15$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.0119651%100 W · 96 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked ex-RUBY36c568.99$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.4620253.5%108 W · 94 L-0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed ex-RUBY44c568.18$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.181,33544%588 W · 747 L+44.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Nemiga30c553.16$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6714854.1%80 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed Nemiga77c535$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.516245.1%73 W · 89 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189f…f4f3backed ex-RUBY34c499.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.992857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed ex-RUBY50c460$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.852,42246.6%1,129 W · 1,293 L-56.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5592…aedebacked Nemiga67c447.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020756%116 W · 91 L-0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d39…5408backed Nemiga63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed ex-RUBY39c351.81$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.650054.6%273 W · 227 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ex-RUBY37c350.5$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.822,67451.9%1,388 W · 1,286 L+25.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b9…889fbacked ex-RUBY29c346.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.784156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Nemiga67c340$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.826745.3%121 W · 146 L+13.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+29.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Nemiga63c337.7$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.7557739.7%229 W · 348 L-22.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe453…256ebacked Nemiga77c331.16$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.662437.5%9 W · 15 L-5.0wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Nemiga60c325.61$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6278634%267 W · 519 L-49.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked Nemiga12c317$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2231723%73 W · 244 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Nemiga58c316.71$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8320444.1%90 W · 114 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x797b…26d2backed ex-RUBY38c315.78$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.781266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga40c314.3$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.226,52242.9%2,798 W · 3,724 L-80.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed ex-RUBY37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1891,02648.8%501 W · 525 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe36c…a856backed ex-RUBY38c295.33$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7410938.5%42 W · 67 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b03…d5cdbacked ex-RUBY34c294.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f1…e320backed ex-RUBY34c288.38$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.335056%28 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ex-RUBY44c254.54$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.173,62429.4%1,065 W · 2,559 L-291.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ex-RUBY31c246.52$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.014,13250.9%2,104 W · 2,028 L+72.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa04c…55d3backed Nemiga61c246.15$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.884035%14 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-37%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Nemiga63c238.1$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x910a…1aa7backed ex-RUBY33c233.88$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.74959.2%29 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed ex-RUBY36c230.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2236549.9%182 W · 183 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465a…c619backed ex-RUBY45c226.28$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.451369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+58.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8593…dd67backed ex-RUBY25c221.4$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.05837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed ex-RUBY34c217.65$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.6517858.4%104 W · 74 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc222…f6ccbacked Nemiga61c207.8$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.762441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked ex-RUBY35c206.34$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1211851.7%61 W · 57 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked ex-RUBY44c203.02$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7927245.2%123 W · 149 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked ex-RUBY43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11441044.9%184 W · 226 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed ex-RUBY34c199.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1327556%42 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed ex-RUBY42c198.05$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.9721753%115 W · 102 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91fc…f032backed ex-RUBY42c181.45$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked ex-RUBY34c179.73$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.6225239.7%100 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d66…ff1dbacked ex-RUBY40c177.2$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.251752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+41.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb98e…2827backed Nemiga57c176.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked ex-RUBY55c176.17$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.661,45052.9%767 W · 683 L+34.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b55…cbc6backed ex-RUBY38c165.22$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.947146.5%33 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f20…934fbacked Nemiga68c165.06$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5934562.9%217 W · 128 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed ex-RUBY32c165$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.651,09637.6%412 W · 684 L+34.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Nemiga54c158.79$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0916136.6%59 W · 102 L-13.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3e7…6036backed Nemiga63c155.84$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.183455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c47…2e55backed Nemiga45c155.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7025147%118 W · 133 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed ex-RUBY31c149.35$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.562227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f4…df56backed Nemiga67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9563…243bbacked ex-RUBY39c145.3$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.351353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x271a…dce7backed Nemiga62c141$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.12250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e88…8a9bbacked Nemiga61c140.32$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fc…2b03backed ex-RUBY46c131.11$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.011662.5%10 W · 6 L+5.4wins+0.34per pick29cpaid+162.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x8d19…e27cbacked ex-RUBY43c130.65$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.479060%54 W · 36 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb20…2909backed ex-RUBY13c129.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.61875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed ex-RUBY45c127.04$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3253342.6%227 W · 306 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Nemiga32c125$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407448.6%36 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Nemiga66c121$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8623645.3%107 W · 129 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33ad…a123backed Nemiga61c119.75$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8513345.9%61 W · 72 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Nemiga24c115.71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7376945.9%353 W · 416 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb66e…ffc2backed ex-RUBY34c110.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.194759.6%28 W · 19 L+5.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+25.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked ex-RUBY45c110$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.593,25651.2%1,667 W · 1,589 L+89.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd4f…a4d3backed Nemiga63c107.41$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.826847.1%32 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed ex-RUBY15c103.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked Nemiga60c101.3$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7847447.5%225 W · 249 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Nemiga65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6523246.6%108 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x264a…7ca4backed Nemiga63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked ex-RUBY42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.252,24447.6%1,068 W · 1,176 L-4.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed ex-RUBY39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.694,26149.2%2,098 W · 2,163 L+62.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed ex-RUBY44c98.86$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9763155.3%349 W · 282 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-RUBY36c98.36$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.175,65147.2%2,668 W · 2,983 L+46.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Nemiga63c94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.227258.3%42 W · 30 L+8.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x903c…02febacked ex-RUBY47c90$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.74841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.