Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e56c0d0c905b9ef3176fe2b4be05915b292836524fe7c8e0f102d885569e727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 56c | 208.51$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.95 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 181.27$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 55c | 165.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 157.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 138.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 131.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 122.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 50c | 116.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 107$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 94.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 88.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 80.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 50c | 72.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 24c | 54.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 51c | 53.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 53.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…f7f5backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 49.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 45.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 32c | 44.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 41.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282c…ddeabacked Yes | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 39.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed No | 52c | 37.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 58c | 36.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 35.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 28.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc78a…ba6dbacked Yes | 50c | 23.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 47c | 23.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 51c | 22.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.