MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e952932393ba08330a0228a622d4e2bc86f23241fceb2d165554013a7bcacd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof New York Mets, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed New York Mets | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 2,147$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.33 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 2,112$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.7 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 2,112$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.7 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 2,109$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.14 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets | 44c | 2,081$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed New York Mets | 37c | 1,692$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.02 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed New York Mets | 39c | 1,050$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed New York Mets | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed New York Mets | 38c | 876.21$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.96 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 38c | 521$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 38c | 399.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 242.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 235.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 189.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked New York Mets | 41c | 166.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 36c | 150.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets | 39c | 140.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Miami Marlins | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 82.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 75.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadcc…9cddbacked New York Mets | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…356bbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 20.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.