MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e704e97715d3e31606ee0ccdaccbc5d38749dc6b626b00e03ea278cd688afbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 54c | 14,131$7,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,630.98 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 53c | 11,195$5,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,912.55 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 8,300$3,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,477.94 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 7,184$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,858.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 3,075$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 47c | 2,041$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.1 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 46c | 2,030$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.27 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 2,000$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 46c | 1,740$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.6 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 1,533$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 46c | 1,162$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.42 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…f403backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 999.99$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 856.87$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.71 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 54c | 789.53$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 46c | 761$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 46c | 760.83$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.85 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 613$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.91 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 611.36$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 599.99$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 46c | 598$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.92 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 54c | 455.67$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.06 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 54c | 442.27$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.63 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 52c | 438$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.76 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 54c | 300.08$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 292.73$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 255$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Under | 46c | 230$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 54c | 229.85$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 47c | 195.36$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 54c | 150.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 146$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 54c | 123.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 53c | 118$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 54c | 101.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 96.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…14ebbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 45c | 90.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 54c | 86.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 45.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 47c | 41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…d7fabacked Under | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 54c | 36.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Over | 54c | 34.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Over | 54c | 32.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 28.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…a963backed Over | 56c | 27.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Under | 46c | 25.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…9b93backed Over | 54c | 25.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 24.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 54c | 23.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…1f18backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe36…5ceabacked Over | 54c | 22.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 46c | 22.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Over | 54c | 19.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…14b1backed Over | 54c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.