MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85a7a327b88a7084ee925223b39b9024594fee1e314a57bbc013c2b6460d46c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 7,912$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 68c | 4,013$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 66c | 1,585$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.44 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 55c | 1,197$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f0…1229backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 1,102$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 66c | 999.98$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets | 70c | 776.33$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.9 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets | 71c | 720.34$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.9 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 706.9$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed New York Mets | 66c | 394.56$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Miami Marlins | 16c | 284.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked New York Mets | 69c | 255.04$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 160.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 71c | 154.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 153.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Mets | 69c | 120.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed New York Mets | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 99.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 80.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 66.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed New York Mets | 71c | 52.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed New York Mets | 67c | 48.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 44.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked New York Mets | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 42.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 35.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed New York Mets | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 31.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 30.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed New York Mets | 71c | 30.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Mets | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets | 72c | 13.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.