TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
HANJIN BRIONof KT Rolster, HANJIN BRION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$216,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,361 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed HANJIN BRION54c66,191$35,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,691.121,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed KT Rolster46c57,614$26,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,502.7727735.7%99 W · 178 L-12.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed KT Rolster47c43,896$20,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,630.981060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed HANJIN BRION53c28,754$15,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,514.5454353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd9d…b730backed KT Rolster47c28,659$13,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,469.641457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed HANJIN BRION53c22,746$12,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,690.7425143.4%109 W · 142 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed KT Rolster47c14,631$6,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,876.476241.9%26 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…0ff5backed HANJIN BRION55c13,200$7,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00259450.2%298 W · 296 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked HANJIN BRION56c10,832$6,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,810.641,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed KT Rolster45c6,340$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.9938235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed HANJIN BRION53c6,017$3,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,828.282352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked HANJIN BRION54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,759.9849940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked HANJIN BRION53c5,000$2,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3501,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed KT Rolster44c4,160$1,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.1715431.8%49 W · 105 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed HANJIN BRION55c4,068$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.057758.4%45 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed HANJIN BRION56c4,053$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.8541439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked HANJIN BRION53c3,500$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,644.9270456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed HANJIN BRION53c3,157$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.861,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed KT Rolster44c2,922$1,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285.6664443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked KT Rolster48c2,810$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3494040%16 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed KT Rolster39c2,586$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.122,22637.5%834 W · 1,392 L-29.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked KT Rolster47c2,562$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.3511655.2%64 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed KT Rolster45c2,500$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12521154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked KT Rolster46c2,145$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.696541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf964…a4cebacked KT Rolster45c2,034$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.36136.1%22 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed HANJIN BRION53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70510648.1%51 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked HANJIN BRION53c1,500$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70532145.5%146 W · 175 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed HANJIN BRION54c1,296$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.386144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed HANJIN BRION53c1,224$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.2149847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed HANJIN BRION56c1,169$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.3136047.5%171 W · 189 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed HANJIN BRION53c1,107$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.221,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed KT Rolster48c1,055$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.6311561.7%71 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked KT Rolster45c1,046$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4733943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed KT Rolster48c1,032$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.5918447.8%88 W · 96 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed HANJIN BRION53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47085746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed HANJIN BRION55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.991,18044.5%525 W · 655 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked KT Rolster51c981.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50035353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked HANJIN BRION52c887.94$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.211,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a6…cfefbacked KT Rolster47c860$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.229338.6%113 W · 180 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed HANJIN BRION54c850$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39137647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6202…8872backed HANJIN BRION64c848.22$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5539859.8%238 W · 160 L+31.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed KT Rolster48c840$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.244335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked KT Rolster47c804.4$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37850956.2%286 W · 223 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b0a…fe3abacked KT Rolster47c800$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3769738.1%37 W · 60 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed HANJIN BRION52c695.39$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.669457.4%54 W · 40 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed KT Rolster48c657.29$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.51952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed KT Rolster46c599.98$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.995851.7%30 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked KT Rolster48c576.82$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27437640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed KT Rolster47c531.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25043640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37a1…bedfbacked KT Rolster45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22511344.2%50 W · 63 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed KT Rolster47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23529952.2%156 W · 143 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed KT Rolster46c495.11$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.7712647.6%60 W · 66 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked KT Rolster48c479.17$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23028852.1%150 W · 138 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed HANJIN BRION48c473.23$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.082,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed HANJIN BRION53c462.23$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.638055%44 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd23c…07cebacked HANJIN BRION52c425.05$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.653836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed KT Rolster47c417.98$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4524656.1%138 W · 108 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dad…95d5backed HANJIN BRION55c414.98$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed HANJIN BRION54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18476953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…3668backed HANJIN BRION54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18411246.4%52 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked HANJIN BRION47c396.76$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.582,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed KT Rolster46c359.96$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3874637.9%283 W · 463 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked HANJIN BRION56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1421559.5%128 W · 87 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed HANJIN BRION52c320$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.61,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c76…862dbacked KT Rolster47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed KT Rolster48c308.44$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14848852%254 W · 234 L-2.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…70d9backed KT Rolster53c303.31$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed KT Rolster47c286.83$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8148742.3%206 W · 281 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed HANJIN BRION53c282.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.012,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed KT Rolster48c260.29$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.941553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed KT Rolster45c230.17$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0960849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed KT Rolster44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008440.5%34 W · 50 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed KT Rolster48c220.14$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.677247.2%34 W · 38 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+14.6%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed HANJIN BRION54c220$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.264453.9%347 W · 297 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e83…a620backed KT Rolster46c218.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006253.2%33 W · 29 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked KT Rolster48c210$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.813551.9%70 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…d143backed KT Rolster47c209.49$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.46119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick37cpaid-82.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x62be…444cbacked KT Rolster48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008350.6%42 W · 41 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c91…b4d2backed KT Rolster48c200.52$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.253745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked HANJIN BRION53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949637.5%36 W · 60 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked HANJIN BRION53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9489050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed HANJIN BRION54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked HANJIN BRION55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8220546.3%95 W · 110 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed KT Rolster48c178.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked KT Rolster47c166.87$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4318165.7%119 W · 62 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked HANJIN BRION53c160.51$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4414848.6%72 W · 76 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-18.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed KT Rolster47c148.45$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0752848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x290e…0783backed KT Rolster47c142.53$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.991560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+48.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked KT Rolster47c138.6$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.687732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed HANJIN BRION53c119.88$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3437548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed KT Rolster42c118.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.061,60617.5%281 W · 1,325 L-245.0wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-63.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x45b5…c5a8backed HANJIN BRION56c118.18$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed HANJIN BRION53c118.18$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.541,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed HANJIN BRION60c115.01$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.874849.6%371 W · 377 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee0e…38bbbacked KT Rolster44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5076047%357 W · 403 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed KT Rolster47c112.47$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.862842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed KT Rolster46c112.31$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5779745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933f…df4bbacked KT Rolster47c111.7$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.55044%22 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked KT Rolster45c110$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.51,24134.7%431 W · 810 L-2.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c3a…8ab7backed KT Rolster46c106.52$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494951%25 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.