Earnings · resolved market
Will Roku (ROKU) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eb418e2bb4e51042c2c5fe0d61755d7595e12ac254f84ed9a560ac9ee62f428
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,113$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 75c | 973.4$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.57 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed No | 16c | 499.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3be…0e17backed No | 61c | 496.32$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked No | 33c | 459.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 64c | 341.89$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed No | 23c | 299.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 77c | 249.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 247.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…8ef9backed No | 25c | 240.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 5c | 226.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 18c | 215.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 21c | 205$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 14c | 199.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 21c | 193.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 17c | 142.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed No | 26c | 136.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8598…199fbacked Yes | 67c | 127.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 118.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 71c | 114.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 22c | 112.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…a307backed No | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…fa2abacked No | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…b16cbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes | 68c | 59.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked No | 34c | 43.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…ca6cbacked Yes | 79c | 35.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…fc71backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 40 | 87.5%35 W · 5 L | +7.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed Yes | 64c | 28.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe55c…8a38backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…9491backed Yes | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.