NFL · resolved market
Spread: Cardinals (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ebf6d9d35a98b6dece0aff407dd82a514cc452d734673006049388dbb2de518
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Cardinals, Saints
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Cardinals | 47c | 19,691$9,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,485.12 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Saints | 53c | 14,630$7,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,753.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Cardinals | 47c | 12,500$5,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,600 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Saints | 52c | 10,527$5,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,473.92 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Saints | 54c | 9,936$5,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,365.4 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Saints | 56c | 4,501$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Cardinals | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…5968backed Saints | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Cardinals | 47c | 1,650$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.5 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Cardinals | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Cardinals | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Cardinals | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Cardinals | 45c | 650$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.5 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 47c | 531.9$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Saints | 54c | 514.28$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.71 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Cardinals | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Cardinals | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Cardinals | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cardinals | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cardinals | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Saints | 53c | 352.08$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.08 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Cardinals | 48c | 291.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Cardinals | 48c | 208$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Cardinals | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Saints | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Cardinals | 48c | 194$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Saints | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…afd7backed Cardinals | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed Saints | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Saints | 54c | 184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cardinals | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Cardinals | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Cardinals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cardinals | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Saints | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cardinals | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Saints | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf63…b05bbacked Cardinals | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Cardinals | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cardinals | 46c | 83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Saints | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Cardinals | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Cardinals | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked Cardinals | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Cardinals | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Cardinals | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cardinals | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Cardinals | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Saints | 53c | 41.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Saints | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Saints | 45c | 37.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Cardinals | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…7d76backed Cardinals | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +115%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cardinals (-6.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. SaintsCardinals won
- Cardinals vs. Saints: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.