MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ee9092d07db49fe89541766081c7f936d3188b3e48b95ee2149e0cc3a3f0d4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 46c | 7,141$3,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,278.89 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 4,396$2,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.92 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 2,075$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.47 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Over | 55c | 1,124$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.26 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 51c | 997.24$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.59 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 42c | 850.97$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.77 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 62c | 844.77$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.28 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 54c | 583.44$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.38 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 54c | 379.66$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.64 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 54c | 369.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 43c | 299.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 60c | 292.8$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2a0abacked Under | 46c | 279.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 43c | 255.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 227.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 53c | 184$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.05 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 45c | 154.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 45c | 150.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 43c | 148.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 125.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Under | 22c | 120.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 176 | 52.8%93 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 58c | 117.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 24c | 112.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Under | 49c | 92.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 54c | 89.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 45c | 70.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 60c | 44.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 73c | 41.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 54c | 40.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 54c | 39.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 54c | 38.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Over | 57c | 32.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 43c | 31.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Over | 61c | 30.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f98…ec35backed Over | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 70c | 26.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 54c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Over | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.