MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7aa018bd56af1322e8055436f5ca84da269dcf6319ae96e40e749194379d8b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 7c | 1,260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 1,086$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.82 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 7c | 882.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 518.36$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.75 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 418.18$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.4 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 252.87$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.09 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 237.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 60c | 214$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 192.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 148.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota Twins | 77c | 130.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 72c | 121.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96b…eb54backed Minnesota Twins | 28c | 116.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 99.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 97.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Minnesota Twins | 36c | 85.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.95 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 85.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 80.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…5a3ebacked Minnesota Twins | 37c | 78.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.15 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 77.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 59.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 49.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 43.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Minnesota Twins | 50c | 43.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 42.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 40.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 32.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Minnesota Twins | 35c | 29.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 20.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.