Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f2b49abc269b921813557ada1b9f0d8fc83791a457936593366b773cd01870f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 58c | 2,840$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.63 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,323$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.05 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 41c | 395.64$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 393.39$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 49c | 315.35$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 40c | 282$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 41c | 277.15$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 261.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 54c | 230.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 36c | 190$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 38c | 184.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 181.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…00e4backed Yes | 40c | 167$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 43c | 143.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 133.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 50c | 128.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 110.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 95.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…33ddbacked Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 48c | 86.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 83.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 79.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 77.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 63c | 75.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 40c | 71.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…9eb9backed Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 38c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 45c | 40.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 40.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 50c | 37.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 53c | 33.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 59c | 33.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf183…83ccbacked Yes | 50c | 30.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe453…30b7backed Yes | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 38c | 28.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 40c | 28.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 40c | 27.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 39c | 27.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 48c | 26.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 41c | 25.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 21.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.