Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Everton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f72b191f2aaa56ce3da042749e2c13099223b61244b1e397b77a8c2f2ee4758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af1…ef00backed Yes | 22c | 1,005$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 20c | 625.37$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed No | 77c | 600$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 77c | 397.17$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 79c | 380.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 72c | 377.83$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…ee60backed Yes | 23c | 325.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…49e5backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9665…3139backed Yes | 22c | 195.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed No | 76c | 177.81$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…103abacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…9908backed Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Yes | 22c | 57.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 77c | 39.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…18d8backed No | 79c | 37.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…3012backed No | 78c | 35.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…9974backed No | 79c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…52dbbacked No | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8243…56ebbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac0…caeebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…93febacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Everton end in a draw?this page
- Will Everton win on 2024-12-01?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.