Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f7300eec8e4e29168fbf6d2830c6a13e79ebb2a0a3cb1168fdc62505d071928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 1,063$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…9117backed Yes | 30c | 652.76$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 352.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 336.33$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.45 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.52 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 31c | 247.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.77 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 35c | 187.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 173.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 169.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 151.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 150.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 135$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 128.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…5469backed Yes | 79c | 127.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed No | 64c | 125.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 100.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 95.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 84.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 20c | 68.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 39.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 39.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 38.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 36.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 35.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 73c | 32.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked No | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163d…7c69backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 24.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 73c | 23.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 23.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 73c | 20.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 15.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.