Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fc6884e561fcef7d487b21fe6674a7ef978483211086b7f4fbecc3af189ce0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 1,104$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 562.08$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.73 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 45c | 503.61$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 489.11$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 430$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 311.56$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 226.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 62c | 225.74$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 210$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 176.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 32c | 156.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 140.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 42c | 118.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 40c | 117.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 115.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 110.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 99.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 92.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 88.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 87.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 81.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 38c | 72.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 37c | 60.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked No | 33c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 55.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 45c | 55.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 66c | 55.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 47c | 54.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 33c | 51.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 48.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 63c | 47.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 45.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 44.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 41.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 37.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 32c | 37.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 40c | 36.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 65c | 35.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 37c | 35.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 66c | 34.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 33.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed Yes | 39c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2b…841dbacked Yes | 38c | 33.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 31.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 38c | 29.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 24.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 22.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 54c | 21.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 21.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.