Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b242b519cc12af1dffbd72c87482446d82db6538cbc1ae0608050804740cbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 2,642$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.38 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 514.86$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 512.5$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.88 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed No | 52c | 415.38$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.38 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 377.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 344.4$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.32 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 320.44$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 261$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 213.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.52 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 179.18$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 161.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 158.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 138.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 43c | 117.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 113$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 99.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 96.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 91.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 49c | 84.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 53c | 70.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 68.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 62.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 50c | 60.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 43c | 51.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 49.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 59c | 45.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 54c | 44.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 46c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 43c | 35.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 48c | 30.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 29.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 53c | 29.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 53c | 28.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 27.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 38c | 26.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 25.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 22.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 56c | 19.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 19.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 70c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 59c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.