Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fd59d2c8e9000835fea005c95e63a13ef2fd752b1aa6caf54fb040c55efe052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 49c | 338.69$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.39 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 37c | 299.37$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.25 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 55c | 272.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.3 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 254.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…e823backed Yes | 38c | 235.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 10c | 220.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 199.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 180.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 8c | 179.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 45c | 158.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.34 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 154.48$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 72c | 151.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 59c | 147$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 144.77$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 140.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 138.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 136.86$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 25c | 133.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 127.47$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 120.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 120.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 29c | 119.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 54c | 115.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 36c | 103.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 103.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 32c | 94.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 43c | 86.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…4b27backed Yes | 50c | 84.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 40c | 80.06$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 31c | 78.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 59c | 76.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 80c | 75.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 74.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 70.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 19c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…7de1backed Yes | 30c | 66.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 64.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 63.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 62c | 62.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 47c | 53.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 41c | 53.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 20c | 53.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 52c | 52.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed No | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 44c | 50.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 46.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 65c | 42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 28c | 39.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 51c | 39.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 55c | 38.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 51c | 38.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 38.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 54c | 36.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 36.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 42c | 35.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 33.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 32.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 61c | 32.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 32.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 46c | 30.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb281…e048backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 64c | 29.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 27.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 38c | 27.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 25.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 73c | 23.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 70c | 23.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 64c | 23.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 22.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 22.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 61c | 21.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 62c | 20.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.