Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e5e75f8b83186dc7babcde71577d0cb55753d8e1f4fe56778914fdb84e78ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 46c | 328.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 230$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 65c | 215.1$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…e823backed Yes | 52c | 204.34$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 31c | 199.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 186.05$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 166.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 161.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 160.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 159.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 18c | 143.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…5628backed No | 72c | 138.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 137.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 57c | 133.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 14c | 133$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 42c | 132.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 79c | 128.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 121.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 17c | 120.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 23c | 112.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 35c | 100.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 40c | 99.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 30c | 98.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 61c | 93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 91.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 90.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 62c | 80.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 35c | 79.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 36c | 73.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 69.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 35c | 68.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 67.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 64.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 54c | 62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 61.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Yes | 30c | 57.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 57.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 30c | 53.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 45c | 51.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…61cbbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 60c | 49.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…365bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 74c | 44.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 48c | 44.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 43.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 68c | 43.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 48c | 41.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 61c | 40.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…159ebacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…5411backed Yes | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 36.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 32.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…daafbacked No | 65c | 29.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 43c | 29.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 70c | 29.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be9…446ebacked Yes | 40c | 27.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 25.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 20.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb285…0fecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 59c | 19.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 63c | 17.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 76c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.