Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8022f53bd6be829c709fb59a832a80d1f8d8f6bd512d74833beb1aecf3f5d58a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Udinese Calcioof Udinese Calcio, ACF Fiorentina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Udinese Calcio | 12c | 4,087$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,596.54 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Udinese Calcio | 11c | 572.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.73 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 62c | 416.2$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.57 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked ACF Fiorentina | 24c | 350.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Udinese Calcio | 73c | 292.82$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked Udinese Calcio | 53c | 261.6$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860e…a06dbacked Udinese Calcio | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Udinese Calcio | 10c | 114.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed ACF Fiorentina | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…9854backed Udinese Calcio | 58c | 42.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked ACF Fiorentina | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-1.5)this page
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Spread: Udinese Calcio (-2.5)Udinese Calcio won
- Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Over won
- Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Under won
- Udinese Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.