Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x802e58fa887402aea8b33dcaf655f6f5b992475f8549f5bc06bb1bf261befb01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 46c | 593.95$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.51 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 56c | 415.14$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.51 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 57c | 392.53$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.53 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 54c | 267.83$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 43c | 262.87$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.84 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 258.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 56c | 230.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 218$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 50c | 191.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 184.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 61c | 164.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 161.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 159.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 155.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 152.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 65c | 130.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 38c | 124$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 122.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 34c | 89.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 89.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 50c | 87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 81.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 43c | 79.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 74c | 71.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 72c | 70.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 44c | 67.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 65.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 57.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 32c | 57.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 56.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 55.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 29c | 50.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 48.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 33c | 43.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 42.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked No | 67c | 41.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 41.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 32c | 40.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 71c | 40.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 69c | 39.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 35c | 36.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 52c | 35.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 57c | 31.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 28.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 27.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 44c | 24.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 70c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 64c | 21.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 21.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 58c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.