Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8067a3ebf1827c210b92a18ea7be83d4a1932a95bdea7ce1035615fe1ef77839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 75c | 569.4$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 409.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 346.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 274.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 267.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 10c | 266.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 20c | 238.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 54c | 237.32$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 77c | 200.66$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 21c | 199.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 23c | 184.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 73c | 176.78$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 7c | 175.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 11c | 168.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 13c | 166.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 27c | 159$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 25c | 136.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 13c | 120.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 15c | 113.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 80c | 112.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 23c | 105.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 96.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 16c | 93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 20c | 84.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 72c | 62.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 26c | 58.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 54.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…8acbbacked No | 25c | 52.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 20c | 52.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 52.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 73c | 39.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 73c | 39.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 76c | 36.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 80c | 35.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3250…baf4backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 77c | 25.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 74c | 23.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 72c | 22.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Yes | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 80c | 16.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc858…a376backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 63°F or below on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.