Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8086e4de8b3e8c4d3a08c4fb086eab6fa9dfa89a0142f547508e32ffb726ccb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 2c | 2,064$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 12c | 933.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 605.26$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 29c | 350.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 243.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 242$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 21c | 223.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 221.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 72c | 141.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 71c | 140.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 139.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 133.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 129$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 122.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 106.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x841c…f9b8backed Yes | 15c | 103.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 100.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 31c | 99.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 95.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 13c | 90.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 22c | 83.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 19c | 80.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 64.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…f206backed Yes | 33c | 60.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 36c | 56.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 56.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 69c | 54.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 50.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 47.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 46.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 44.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 69c | 43.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 69c | 42.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 42.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 52c | 38.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 36.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 63c | 36.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 63c | 28.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…89aebacked Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 28.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…e559backed Yes | 38c | 26.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3809…4441backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 80c | 13.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.