Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf41218b4a40ba83da5d2e1c24f3a88d1d0c84a9da2e86f7adc711160792fe94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 47c | 399.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 29c | 393.64$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 379.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 359.4$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 69c | 247$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.09 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 228.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 21c | 221.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 200.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 155.43$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 27c | 128.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 118.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 103.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 24c | 89.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 81.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 79.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…7b25backed Yes | 32c | 78.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 76.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…1c2fbacked Yes | 26c | 74.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed No | 65c | 72.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 70.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 69.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…9fffbacked Yes | 20c | 65.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 43c | 57.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 56.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 53c | 55.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 46.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 45.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 73c | 42.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed No | 60c | 36.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 31.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 74c | 23.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 59c | 19.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 18.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf147…791ebacked No | 76c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 2?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.