Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4eb28fe6314cc3b104927e3c634bc6588270392f6acb9ad8f7b3a90cb60602ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 71c | 702.87$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.12 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 461.74$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 67c | 426.68$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 41c | 377.16$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 288.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 286$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 39c | 247.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 242$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 177.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 18c | 162.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 64c | 159.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 9c | 151.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 16c | 127.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 124.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 41c | 114.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 107.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 96.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 86.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 22c | 83.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 38c | 83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 73c | 80.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 31c | 76.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 45c | 70.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 69.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 43c | 68.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 80c | 67.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 43c | 65.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 39c | 64.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 60.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 60.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 59.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 72c | 59.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 54.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 53.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 70c | 52.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 65c | 51.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 56c | 49.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 30c | 45.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 45c | 43.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 61c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 41.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 39.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 37.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 74c | 37.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 76c | 32.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…fc3fbacked No | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 30.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 29.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 40c | 26.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 64c | 25.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3809…4441backed Yes | 44c | 23.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 62c | 22.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 65c | 20.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 75c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 19.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 19.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 65c | 19.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 65c | 18.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…3475backed No | 68c | 18.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 62c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 71c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf417…b1bebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.