Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8093bc3cc1d95df61e4778d00c822c984145e72fd1aff737ce5f8498a1293bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 60c | 777.15$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.1 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 32c | 709.76$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.93 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 578.42$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked Yes | 20c | 518.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.95 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 470.78$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.99 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 27c | 414.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.76 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed Yes | 40c | 369.05$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.46 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 330.75$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 304.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 303.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.56 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 69c | 297.75$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.25 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 286.35$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 275.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.62 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 271.09$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 236$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 66c | 231.68$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 28c | 212.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.72 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 212.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked No | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.98 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…41b5backed Yes | 59c | 193.21$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 192.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 187.02$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 16c | 181.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 50c | 171.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 8c | 165.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.17 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 165.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 76c | 154.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.94 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 142.93$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 128.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 34c | 121.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 110.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 11c | 109$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 104.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 77c | 100.52$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 97.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 67c | 97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 90.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 68c | 89.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 86.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 21c | 84.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 41c | 83.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 64.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…c6fdbacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 62.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 70c | 51.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…3365backed Yes | 39c | 47.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 30c | 46.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 54c | 44.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 43.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 34c | 42.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 49c | 41.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed Yes | 38c | 39.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 39.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 29c | 38.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 34c | 34.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 68c | 34.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 33.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 65c | 29.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 29.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 28.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 27.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 27.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 70c | 27.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 27.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 46c | 23.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 66c | 22.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 20.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 70c | 18.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 70c | 17.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 67c | 15.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.