Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32bd673a8d65ff316c78eea56e7e6349961e86cff62ff2ff0e8b6b68247fe68f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 30c | 2,554$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.75 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 675.98$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 511.67$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 400.68$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 327$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 312.31$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.3 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 297.44$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked No | 73c | 255.23$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 48c | 247.39$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.16 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 236$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 210.31$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 186.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 50c | 175.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 164.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 71c | 126.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 116.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 114.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 19c | 102.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 46c | 94.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 58c | 90$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 45c | 89.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 84.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 82.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 33c | 76.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 73.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 39c | 68.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…3afdbacked No | 71c | 66.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2b…a818backed No | 71c | 66.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 66.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 66.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 43c | 64.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 43c | 64.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6279…b100backed No | 71c | 63.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 60.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 54c | 55.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 57c | 52.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 54c | 50.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 50.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 57c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 44.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 45c | 44.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 43.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 29c | 43.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 41.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…badabacked Yes | 34c | 37.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 55c | 36.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 36.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 39c | 35.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 34c | 35.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 63c | 33.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 32.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 32.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 60c | 32.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 32.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 29.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 57c | 28.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 41c | 27.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 41c | 26.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…68d8backed Yes | 49c | 25.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 25.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 76c | 24.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed No | 49c | 23.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…9145backed Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 65c | 21.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 20.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…e5d7backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 72c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 54c | 19.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d3…5122backed Yes | 76c | 17.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 68c | 16.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 16.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.