Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80ae5cfe7d9e69cde025c2370b5210e2f595801f03a23af8da73224704f7d009
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89da…b5f2backed Yes | 15c | 769.38$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 4c | 370.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 225.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 213.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 189.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 24c | 187.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 178.29$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 144.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 132.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 28c | 129.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 127.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 114.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 113.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 33c | 106.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 35c | 105.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 104.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 19c | 100.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 28c | 100.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 97.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 94.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 90.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 30c | 89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 87.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 79.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 18c | 72.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 70c | 68.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 61.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 59.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 59.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 54.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 74c | 53.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 37c | 52.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 49.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 48.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…5411backed Yes | 35c | 45.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 28c | 44.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 28c | 40.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 31c | 39.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 36.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 80c | 34.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 30.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 77c | 28.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 27.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4766…6e4bbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 70c | 26.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 72c | 26.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 72c | 24.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 76c | 23.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed No | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 18.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 73c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 73c | 17.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…fea7backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.