Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x487d31a4698feafda65185378f9396183d9dbdba3a7a9e1eb95a5ff3443234a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 56c | 484.52$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.02 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 9c | 439.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 22c | 390.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89da…b5f2backed No | 18c | 308.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 63c | 238.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 5c | 220.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 64c | 218.14$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 217.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 39c | 202.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.42 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 192.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 32c | 185.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 10c | 172.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 67c | 168.49$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 158.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 150.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 18c | 138.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 30c | 135.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.63 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 133.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 53c | 130.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 120.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 112.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…4b27backed Yes | 66c | 112.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 109.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 108.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 108.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 16c | 106.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 58c | 99.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 87.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 84.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 41c | 80.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…365bbacked Yes | 33c | 72.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 68.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 59c | 67.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 75c | 66.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 57.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 54c | 57.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 30c | 55.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 25c | 54.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…7de1backed Yes | 37c | 54.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 42c | 54.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 44c | 52.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 59c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 50.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 72c | 49.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 60c | 49.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 56c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 47.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 46c | 45.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 69c | 42.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed No | 42c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 43c | 37.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 53c | 37.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 41c | 36.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 56c | 35.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 55c | 35.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 73c | 35.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 56c | 32.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 40c | 31.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 46c | 30.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked No | 46c | 30.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 56c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 73c | 25.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 51c | 25.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 74c | 22.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 56c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6146…9848backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…f3d2backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.