Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80b9dbb8059688b8c0ad15e82f16eebc3de9f73f2d38dc78bff438107be1cae3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 36c | 428.39$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.28 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 206.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 39c | 179.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 69c | 160$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 77c | 156.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.3 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked No | 68c | 149.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 65c | 138.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 36c | 135.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 74c | 135.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 125.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 116.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 115.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 37c | 106.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 104.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 55c | 89.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 86.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 56c | 86.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 60.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 52.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 65c | 51.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 49.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 44.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…a5cabacked No | 64c | 42.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 40.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 62c | 37.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 66c | 36.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 30c | 35.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 42c | 32.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 43c | 30.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…d374backed Yes | 51c | 26.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e1…c6f3backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…7e4ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 65c | 19.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.