Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80dff954c72303acd9df4fc8a1a6f7016b5e7df0639e77b6595784e8bf3c5c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ALIS VENTORUSof ALIS VENTORUS, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 2,618$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.19 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 2,335$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.54 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed ALIS VENTORUS | 20c | 2,146$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.19 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 2,025$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.45 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed ALIS VENTORUS | 33c | 2,016$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.63 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 1,458$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…6802backed ALIS VENTORUS | 76c | 1,439$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.99 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 1,100$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.25 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 847.72$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.06 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 20c | 750$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 33c | 670.69$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.42 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked ALIS VENTORUS | 47c | 618.1$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.64 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 22c | 592.76$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.68 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 17c | 582.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.52 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed ALIS VENTORUS | 18c | 494.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.42 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked ALIS VENTORUS | 79c | 493.67$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 18c | 487.11$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.14 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 19c | 419$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ALIS VENTORUS | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 385.2$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.44 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed ALIS VENTORUS | 58c | 344.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 304.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.28 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 24c | 302.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.75 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 298.26$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.93 | 256 | 39.5%101 W · 155 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…2a0dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 34c | 240.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.47 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed ALIS VENTORUS | 28c | 215.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.74 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed ALIS VENTORUS | 19c | 200.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 152.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…3ccebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 35c | 143.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.85 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef66…f839backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 121.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed ALIS VENTORUS | 34c | 107.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 105.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.85 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 17c | 104.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed ALIS VENTORUS | 39c | 98.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…b90dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 18c | 79.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed ALIS VENTORUS | 27c | 69.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 66.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 65.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed ALIS VENTORUS | 69c | 56.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f3…35b9backed ALIS VENTORUS | 43c | 41.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 33.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 25.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed ALIS VENTORUS | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 19.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsALIS VENTORUS won
- Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.