Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7145ead8bb95f8bcc667d41fda4cfc5982ae86b7de45dc90511b5f7ec964cdd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof ALIS VENTORUS, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 4,355$3,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.46 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Nigma Galaxy | 76c | 3,629$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.97 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11c…e96fbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 31c | 2,962$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.82 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 35c | 2,209$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.27 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…6802backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 2,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.85 | 130 | 68.5%89 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed ALIS VENTORUS | 26c | 1,930$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.29 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 1,877$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.8 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 1,502$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.27 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 1,496$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.09 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 1,330$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.19 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 1,198$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.55 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 28c | 996.35$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.38 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…59e9backed ALIS VENTORUS | 29c | 978.3$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.6 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 924.91$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.44 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 30c | 885.9$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.55 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed ALIS VENTORUS | 41c | 588.31$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.05 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed ALIS VENTORUS | 27c | 399.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed ALIS VENTORUS | 34c | 349.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.65 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 340$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 335.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 233.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…2a0dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 42c | 232.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 159.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed ALIS VENTORUS | 8c | 153.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 141.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 30c | 132.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed ALIS VENTORUS | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 108.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked ALIS VENTORUS | 17c | 101.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 84.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 32c | 83.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 105 | 61%64 W · 41 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…bb4abacked ALIS VENTORUS | 27c | 61.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 56.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed ALIS VENTORUS | 23c | 46.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…dcb9backed ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 43.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsALIS VENTORUS won
- Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerALIS VENTORUS won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.