WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8103c3fa8273ffa77f66f04a71fb7a29927c9a47ec62cf4a215fc85a6d3d8acd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Los Angeles Sparks, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 6,169$3,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,142.75 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Connecticut Sun | 46c | 2,458$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.69 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 2,379$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.64 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Connecticut Sun | 47c | 1,986$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.4 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62b6…5de0backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 1,853$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 1,848$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 1,808$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.35 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 1,730$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.13 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 1,397$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.25 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 916.48$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.24 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…b283backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 909$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Connecticut Sun | 47c | 734.77$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.43 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 542.28$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.41 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 517.1$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.55 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 351.91$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.96 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Connecticut Sun | 49c | 289.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Connecticut Sun | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 509 | 52.5%267 W · 242 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…391fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Connecticut Sun | 57c | 123$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Los Angeles Sparks | 56c | 115.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 90.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Connecticut Sun | 44c | 89.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 68.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Connecticut Sun | 47c | 62.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 61.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed Los Angeles Sparks | 46c | 61.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Connecticut Sun | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Connecticut Sun | 49c | 30.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 30.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Los Angeles Sparks | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 22.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Los Angeles Sparks | 61c | 20.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -11.1wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…b8b2backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-3.5)this page
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5Under won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5Under won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-4.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5)Connecticut Sun won
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-6.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.