CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x811d7490488c3f9d986cb5937a972a31cf766fafa799629306bd93691aecabe4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, MOUZ NXT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked ARCRED | 62c | 4,134$2,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.3 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ NXT | 37c | 2,021$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.89 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked ARCRED | 61c | 978.73$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.71 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MOUZ NXT | 39c | 650$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.5 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…f184backed MOUZ NXT | 18c | 571.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MOUZ NXT | 39c | 525.32$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.75 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked MOUZ NXT | 29c | 471.66$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.02 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed ARCRED | 69c | 439$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.73 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…48a3backed MOUZ NXT | 9c | 340.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed ARCRED | 59c | 318.69$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.94 | 618 | 37.9%234 W · 384 L | -22.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked ARCRED | 62c | 311.18$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed MOUZ NXT | 20c | 285.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed MOUZ NXT | 41c | 258.32$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 336 | 27.7%93 W · 243 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked MOUZ NXT | 34c | 241.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed MOUZ NXT | 14c | 206.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed ARCRED | 51c | 190.78$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ARCRED | 77c | 185.29$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed ARCRED | 55c | 178.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed MOUZ NXT | 41c | 176.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 439 | 33.7%148 W · 291 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ NXT | 37c | 173.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed MOUZ NXT | 46c | 149.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 328 | 44.5%146 W · 182 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…2355backed MOUZ NXT | 27c | 145.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed MOUZ NXT | 40c | 144.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MOUZ NXT | 16c | 143.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ARCRED | 78c | 138.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed MOUZ NXT | 42c | 136.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 739 | 48.4%358 W · 381 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked ARCRED | 78c | 132.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…d53ebacked MOUZ NXT | 12c | 120.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…b819backed MOUZ NXT | 48c | 120.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed MOUZ NXT | 18c | 115.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 250 | 42.8%107 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked ARCRED | 80c | 105.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked MOUZ NXT | 39c | 103.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked ARCRED | 54c | 100.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ NXT | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc78…a301backed MOUZ NXT | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed ARCRED | 62c | 97.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 608 | 38.2%232 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…5f48backed MOUZ NXT | 39c | 97.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked MOUZ NXT | 18c | 96.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -17.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af0…7696backed MOUZ NXT | 37c | 96.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed MOUZ NXT | 42c | 86.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 799 | 51.7%413 W · 386 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked MOUZ NXT | 19c | 86.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 270 | 15.2%41 W · 229 L | -41.9wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed MOUZ NXT | 49c | 82.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9927…f135backed ARCRED | 55c | 72.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 53 | 77.4%41 W · 12 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed MOUZ NXT | 40c | 69.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 217 | 41.5%90 W · 127 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…e006backed MOUZ NXT | 18c | 67.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 394 | 40.4%159 W · 235 L | +30.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3e87backed ARCRED | 64c | 64.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 399 | 46.4%185 W · 214 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdffe…b4d3backed MOUZ NXT | 39c | 62.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 146 | 30.8%45 W · 101 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked MOUZ NXT | 37c | 61.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MOUZ NXT | 37c | 59.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed ARCRED | 76c | 50.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…b32fbacked MOUZ NXT | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…1377backed ARCRED | 54c | 48.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…3a45backed MOUZ NXT | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked MOUZ NXT | 39c | 48.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f841backed MOUZ NXT | 29c | 47.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7344…98f6backed MOUZ NXT | 40c | 33.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed ARCRED | 60c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked ARCRED | 60c | 31.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed ARCRED | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…1002backed ARCRED | 54c | 23.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 278 | 48.6%135 W · 143 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MOUZ NXT - Map 1 WinnerARCRED won
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs MOUZ NXT - Map 2 WinnerARCRED won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.